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Nationaløkonomisk Tidsskrift, Bind 114 (1976) 

Norman Macrae:

I think I can best contribute to this conference by setting down a number of outrageous short propositions, which more learned participants can then disagree with at some length.

I am going to do an awful thing as a happy economist (there are some) at a joint conference of the Danish Economic Association and the Danish Foreign Policy Institute. I am going to say that most of the economic problems in front of us are very easy, and that it is doubtful if even economic advisers to present major governments can for very long go on making a mess of them - although foreign policy experts, such as Henry Kissinger, do a lot to help us try. And I am going to forecast that foreign policy problems are going to grow more difficult, for reasons familiar to each of the three regions which we have been asked to think about at this conference.

At the end of this paper I will set down two propositions about the oil exporting countries, which have moved from being very poor to being briefly very rich, but some of whom will probably soon move back to being poor, because they are likely to be ruined by their monoculture of what
will become unwanted oil.

In the middle of my paper I will set down two propositions about the poor countries, the desperate two-thirds of mankind who should always be in the centre of all human thoughts.

But at the beginning of my paper I hope you will forgive me for setting down nine propositions about the rich or OECD countries.

The main reason why economic problems are easy in OECD is that, at a time when everybody is saying that economic growth is going permanently to slow down, there is a strong probability that economic growth is instead going to accelerate. The main reason why foreign policy problems may be going to become more difficult is that we are probably coming to the end of the American century of 1876-1976, just as a hundred years ago we were coming to the end of the British century of 1776-1876. Which leads to:

Proposition number one. Through some sophisticated fluke, the two empires who through very temporary dynamism led the two successive centuries of material advance - the British in 1776-1876 and the American in 1876-1976 - handled the task of world leadership rather surprisingly well. Most of the right sides eventually won most of the big hot and especially cold wars. This has been particularly true of these last dangerous 30 years of the American century. I always infuriate my children by saying how much more hopeful things look in 1976 than they did in 1946 when I was their age. We still barely recognise the progress we have made and the escapes we have achieved. In 1946 the average age of death of an Indian was in the late 20s; now it is in the mid-sos. In 1946 real gross world product was one-quarter of what it is now. In 1946 the political situation was that the principal arbitrating power in the free world had just plopped into the hands of two small and unknown men - Truman and Atlee - by outrageous historical mistake. 1946 was also the year in which one of my contrymen was, as an act of idealism, giving the secret of the nuclear bomb to a mad Russian dictator, whose qualifications for thus holding in his hands the power to destroy the planet were not comfortingly advertised by the fact that he was soon to want to condemn his doctors to death for not making him feel better on the increasingly frequent occasions when he went to bed mad roaring drunk. I am sometimes accused of being too optimistic in what I write. I think that anybody who has been a journalist in the past 30 years has really been living through those 30 years in a state of evaporating nervous breakdown. Now we come to one reason why it may not continue to evaporate.

Proposition number two. The Americans in 1976 are now showing the same symptomsof a drift from economic dynamism as the British did at the end of their century in 1876. We britons are experts at describing a drift from economic dynamism because we have spent 100 years observing it at close quarters. There were two early signs of Britishdecay by the 1870s. First, the upper class just about then began to regard businessas something rather vulgar and to look upon new factories as things that were ecologicallyunfair to their pheasants and wild ducks. That is exactly the mood of America's- and, alas, Scandinavia's - intellectualupper class now. Secondly, after about the 1870s a progressive person in British public life no longer meant a person who believed in progress, no longer a person who was eager to rout down to the roots of every way of doing things so as to cut and graft whereever an improvement in production or effectiveness or competitiveness or individual liberty could be secured. A progressive personbegan to mean a chap who did not like progress and change very much, but who was most decently eager to pass on in welfarebenefits a larger part of the growth in national income which his own anti growth attitudes now made it more difficult to attain.That is exactly the change that has happened in America in these years just before 1976. Most of their new senators and congressmen seem to me to belong to the Fabian society of about 1903. All their publicwomen are Mrs-Pankhurst-suffragettes. One can most easily envisage them in bicyclingbloomers.

Proposition number three. World leadership is therefore likely to pass into new hands quite early in the century 1976-2076. If one had been guessing in the 1870s who would take over world leadership from the British, one would have guessed Bismarck's Prussia and been quite wrong. If one is guessing in the 1970s who will take over from the Americans I would guess Japan and probably be quite wrong.

Proposition number four. During this new century 1976-2076 the world will face some extraordinary opportunities and also some bizarre dangers. The opportunities will probably include an ability to put material living standards in the 21st century more or less whereever men want them. The history of economic growth is that, after man stopped being a mainly migratory animal in about 8,000 BC, real gross world product per head stood practically still for 10,000 years down to about 1776. Then it exploded. Real incomes have increased in each of the 20 decades since 1776 (even the 19305) because of an increase in every decade in man's control over energy and matter. To this has been added, in the last two decades, a breakthrough in the processing of information and a nascent breakthrough in the distribution of information (ie, computers, telecommunications by satellite, the beginnings of packaged and computerised learning programmes, maybe even at last a start towards understanding of the learning process itself). It seems to me rather likely that this will make the potentiality for economic growth accelerate, not slow down.

Proposition number five. Ecologists say that the main barriers in the way of further growth will be a shortage of (i) energy, (2) food, (3) raw materials, plus (4) high birth rates and (5) high pollution These seem to me to be the five least likely barriers to growth in the next 20 years. Energy, food and raw materials are each things in high elasticity of supply, each things whose productionis now in a state of exploding technologicalinnovation, yet each things in which the present selling price to advanced countriesis above even present day marginal cost of production. The same broad considerationsapply to birth control devices and to anti-pollution techniques - ie, advancing technology and subsidised oversupply. If we do run into temporary shortages of supply, it is much more likely to be in things in which we do not allow a market mechanism to operate properly, such as water and nonacademiceducation.

Proposition number six. We do, however, face a major problem in business organisation. In the rich one-fifth of the world during the dying manufacturing age we have built up big hierarchical business corporations, in which executives sit arranging what each man below him will do with his hands, down to the man turning a screw on the assembly line. Now in the post-manufacturing age we have great hierarchical corporations in which executives sit trying to arrange what the man below him will do with his imagination. This doesn't work, and can't work. New forms of business organisation will have to be found, probably making big corporations into confederations of entrepreneurs. The firms and countries that will go bust in these circumstances are those which try to replace hierarchical corporations by even more ossified forms of hierarchical corporations: say, by deciding that you mustn't have a boss trying to arrange what free men do with their imaginations, but can have a trade union committee doing so instead.

Proposition number seven. The bizarre dangers in the century ahead will include, first, the biophysical. The present orthodox way of creating a human being - namely by copulation between two individuals giving no thought to what the product will be - may quite soon change. Sex is already 99-99 % f°r fun, and technology is bound to home in on the pre-planned twice in a lifetime occasion when it will be for reproduction. duction.Our children will probably progressively be able to order their babies with the shape and strength and level of intelligence that they choose as well as alter existing human beings so as to insert artificial intelligence, retime brains, change personality, modify moods, control behaviour, enjoy artificial pleasure by stimulating the pleasure centres of the brain. And lots of even more honied things like that. The pace and sophistication with which some of these things are not done will hang on the world's leading nations whom other peoples will most wish to emulate or will most fear to fall behind.

Proposition number eight. One termonuclear explosion can now release more explosive power than was released by all of the explosions of all the TNT in all the wars of history. And a thermonuclear bomb is soon going to be almost portable. Quite small groups of fanatics and terrorists and individual criminals will therefore soon have the capability of destroying the planet. We have not made the beginning of an advance towards thinking what we will do as that power of blackmail escalates.

Proposition number nine. Just as the centuryfrom 1776 to 1876 was based on the transport revolution of the railways and on steam power, just as the century of 1876 to 1976 was based on the transport revolution of the automobile and on manufacturers' assembly lines, so the third century of 1976-2076is to be based on the third and by far biggest transport revolution - that of telecommunications - allied to knowledge processing. This is likely to change the whole pattern of our lives, because it probably

Side 162

means that an increasing number of us will no longer have to live near the places of our work. We will be able to live in Tahiti if we want to and be able to telecommute daily to our London or New York or Copenhagenoffice in order to have continuous contact with the computers and colleagues with whom we work. Sociologically, this makes it quite possible that the age of urbanisationis about to end and the problems of the re-ruralisation about to begin.

So much for the rich one-fifth of the world. Now for the poorest two-thirds of what will become the nuclear trigger-minders' profession. We British left behind in the power structures of those countries ex- Sandhurst cadets and ex-London-School-of- Economics-socialists; those are the two least suitable types for ruling anything in this last quarter of the twentieth century; they are now fighting civil wars against each other across all the parts of the map that were once painted an imperial red. So we economists had better look for ways of correcting these mistakes that experts in Foreign Policy have made.

Proposition number ten. The best mechanism would be something like this. At present nearly all big industrial countries look forward to what their gnps may be a year ahead, and most often pump any desirable extra spending power initially into the hands of the poorer countries (extra SDRs created so they can expand their imports?). Their use of this would then mop up unwanted unemployment in the world's rich north.

The objective should be to raise ever more countries to the sort of income level where their governments will be composed of people who think of themselves and their political opponents as heading slowly towards comfortable retirement, instead of racing to get their brothers-in-law to the firing squad first. Probably the best definition of the sort of government that will not start nuclear fighting is: any government where the decision-makers assume that they personally will end their lives in the local equivalent of Southern California, a dacha autside Moscow, or the House of Lords. This seems usual at gnps per head over about $ 1,000 a year.

Proposition number eleven. The worst mechanism will be one much favoured by meetings of economists and foreign policy experts: namely conferences on international stability that pass motions in favour of repealing the laws of supply and demand. All these attempts at creating buffer stocks are helping to lock poor countries into products that are going to be unprofitable. We are repeating the same error as we commited 25 years ago.

Proposition number twelve. As we have one group of poor countries that are temporarilyrich, do let us try to find during this breathing space a mechanism for movingwestern technology down to them in the right places. I do not myself think that multinationalcorporations are going to prove the right mechanism: they make goods bought by the richer 40 % of people in these countries,and are running into all sorts of organisationaldifficulties. But it will be wonderfulif we can use this period to establish mechanisms for performance contracts: to bring a dynamic to food production by sayingthat high profits can be received by any new sort of corporation that can raise nutritionstandards

Side 163

tionstandardsin Algeria by starting green revolutions there, increase literacy and health standards in Nigeria by computer-assisted education or health care delivery etc.

Proposition number thirteen. You will have gathered that I do not think the age of high oil prices will last long. There are many thousand possible ways of releasing energy from storage in matter. They range from petty ways, like 25 BTUs per pound of matter by letting a pound of elastic bands untwist; through fairly petty way, like 20,000 BTUs by burning a pound of petrol; through more sophisticated ways like 250 m BTUs from the fission of the U-235 isotope in one pound of natural uranium; up to 260 thousand billion BTUs from the fusion to helium of a pound of hydrogen. Note that this last system, in which the waters of the oceans could serve as a limitless reservoir of fuel, would be over 10,000,000,000 times more effective per pound of matter than burning a pound of the Arabs' oil.

The trend since 1776 has been for new technology to drive on in sudden bursts towards the cleaner power sources nearer the top of the range. The present "energy crisis" - ie, the raising to a 100 times its marginal cost of the asking-price for the inconvenient mineral slime that is temporarily considered the most transportable energy source - must make the next burst a bit faster. The likely speed of the coming glut in oil might best be gauged by the speed with which other sources were displaced when oil became cost-effective (oh, those poor interwar coalminers and horses), by the range of known future alternatives (unprecedented, including fusion, solar geothermal, ocean-gradient, renewable cellulose-intoclean-alcohol, a lot of others).

That has provided an unlucky 13 of outrageous propositions. Briefly (1)(1) that the world has done marvellously well in 1776— 1976; (2) that the Americans are in danger of becoming undynamic Fabians; (3) that world leadership will pass to somebody else, with the favourite being Japan: (4) that economic growth will accelerate in the next 25 years, just as most people are expecting it to slow down; (5) that there will probably be especial gluts of energy, food, raw materials, environmental controls and too few births, (6) that businesses need to become confederations of entrepreneurs; (7) that there are big dangers that biophysics might alter the nature of man; (8) that there are even bigger dangers that small groups of lunatics might blow the world up; (9) that telecommunications are going to provide the third great transport revolution, and that we will all telecommute; (10) that we need to switch macroeconomics from planning gnp to planning gwp; (11) that buffer stock schemes are bound to be unsuccessful attempts to repeal the laws of supply and demand; (12) that we need to create performance contracts for new sorts of profitmaking multinational service corporations to be paid profitably if they increase (eg) nutrition standards in Ruanda-Burundi; (13) that oil prices will crash.

I think I can probably be of most use at the conference if I do not make a long speech, but throw myself open to answering questions and receiving assaults from the majority of participants who will probably disagree with most of those propositions.

 

................................................ 

How to Avert A Great Depression Through the Hungry 2010s?
Answer, By Making All Banking Very Much Cheaper
This was Norman Macrae's last article written in December 2008


If banks in rich democracies had been truly competitive institutions, at least one of them somewhere would have seized the main opportunity created by the computer. This main
opportunity was to make all deposit-banking vastly cheaper than ever before. By this cheapening it should make such banking hugely more profitable. Then further competition would search for the cheapest ways to guide all the world's saving into the most profitable (or otherwise most desirable) forms of capital investment, thus enriching all mankind.
Instead, during 2008 the total losses of banks in rich democracies- in North America, West Europe and Japan - soared into trillions of dollars. Fearful for their solvency, these banks virtually stopped
lending. The issuance of corporate bonds, commercial paper, and many other financial products largely ceased. Hedge and insurance firms also crashed. Mankind is thus threatened in the 2010s with its longest great depression since the hungry 1930s.
Why? The strange answer seems to be that other happy consequences of modern technology promised to make this cheapening even faster. Call centres in Bangalore vastly undercut the middle class salaries of Midland bank clerk who until the 1950s expensively answered clients' questions in their branches in the City of London. Cheap mobile phones kept village ladies in once miserable Bangladesh as fully in touch with market prices as is the chief research officer of the First National Bank of Somewhere in California. His weekly salary is still 1000 times greater than the previous annual earnings of that village lady. The cost-effective way of running the old Midland or First National
then seemed to be to cut its total salary cost by something like 99%. This did not please Western welfare governments, or the decent chief executives of the old Midland or First National bank.

Awaiting the sensation of a short sharp shock
From a cheap and chippy chopper on a big black block
- WS Gilbert in The Mikado - why it is uncomfortable to work in an industry which needs 99% redundancies
.


Western welfare governments have long preferred to run their banks in high cost cartels, and even invented reasons why this seems to be moral. Their deposit-banks have usually kept in cash
only 10% of the total amount deposited with them. If 11% of depositors suddenly feared that their banks might go bust, this could accelerate a run that would send them bust indeed.
Governments therefore thought that depositors would be less fearful if they were assured that the banks were officially and tightly regulated. Actually, this mainly meant that the banks had to hire ever more expensive lawyers so as to escape any crippling consequences from this regulation. The attached quote shows that Samuel Pepys understood this fact of life in his /Diaries of July 21, 1662.
 

I see it is impossible for the King to have things done so cheaply as do other men
- Samuel Pepys on discovering an important commercial fact of life in his Diary, 21 July, 1662

The decent bosses of the deposit banks felt that the best way of avoiding sacking nine tenths of their staffs was by competing with a very different sort of financing called merchant banking whose earnings and bonuses were far more generous than those given to their own staff. These merchant banks were of peculiarly differing pedigree. In London, it was assumed that they could best be run by families like Barings who had done the job for over 200 years. In the 1990s, Barings went totally bust because one of its hired traders bet much of its money on a hunch that a bad earthquake in Japan meant that the shares of Japanese banks and insurance companies would become more profitable. In Zurich, merchant banks felt it most moral to keep the accounts of their depositors totally secret, especially if these accounts were being used to defraud their own countries' tax authorities. In 2008 those
secretive banks were then defrauded. In Wall Street, Goldman Sachs and Lehman Bros bid up their annual bonuses to millions of dollars for each partner. In 2008 even Goldman Sachs made a loss and Lehman Bros went bust.
A former chairman of the Federal Reserve argues that "fearful investors clearly require a far larger capital cushion to lend unsecured to any financial intermediary now". He therefore thinks that taxpayers money should be ladled into them to make those investors less fearful. This seems far more likely to make depositors intermittently more terrified and cause any depression into the 2010s to linger on and on.


In the 1930s, the chief economic adviser to the government of Siam was called Prince Damrong. I try always to remember it - quote from former director of International Monetary Fund.


One of the few big banks to make a profit in 2008 was the Grameen Bank (which means Village Bank) in that once basketcase country called Bangladesh. The sole staff in a branch serving several villages was once a woman student. It is now more usually someone who has learnt to use the computer in the right way.
The rest of this report will examine how this marvellously costcutting operation works.

Perhaps the most relevant and terrifying analogy is to commercial airlines. In 1945, there were only a tiny number of passenger airmiles flown on them. In each successive year these increased hugely and in this slump time 2009 there will be billions of passenger airmiles flown. In the late 1940s most governments therefore created national airlines and were confident they would flourish in this boom industry, with official regulation assuring they would be safe. Instead all proceeded to lose money, and later privatised but large airlines also did. The present trend is to cost cutting airlines like Ryan Air.


The same will happen to banks. Large banks mislending to the rich have run into losses that have created the slump. Politicians, thinking they are saving the world, are mislending huge sums to these mislenders and will eventually make the slump worst.How to create cost-cutting banks? To begin with Consider Bangladesh - peculiar as this may seem.


START IN A STARVING VILLAGE
The Nobel peace prize for 2006 was controversially awarded, in Oslo, to a "banker for the poor" in usually unfashionable Bangladesh. Since the microcredit system pioneered by this Dr Muhammad Yunus really has lifted record millions of Bangladeshi
women from the world's direst poverty, some of the world's toughest tycoons have thrilled to his stated aim to "harness the powers of the free market to solve the problems of poverty". To his fans' delight and astonishment, he is achieving exactly that.
In the past quarter of a century, his Grameen Bank has lent (without collateral or lawyers) increasing billions of dollars to millions of poor women in the previously starving villages of Bangladesh, and got an extraordinary 99% repayment back. His
often illiterate customers have started millions of successful small businesses in unimagined fields like mobile telephone ladies and saleswomen of the world's cheapest yogurt. All these successes have been won by keeping costs incredibly low. A banking
operation that would cost Goldman Sachs $100 in New York or London would cost Grameen in Bangladesh well under 100 cents.
This is a huge development in human history. Money can now be directly channelled into productive use by the world's poorest people, while unsuccessful lending to the rich has caused a world slump.

How do we switch custom to cost-cutting banks?
During Bangladeshi's terrible famine year of 1974, Dr Yunus ( who had won his doctorate in economics in a free market American university, which most founders of banks have not done) came back to his 1940 birthplace of Chittagong, as professor of economics at the university there. He started lecturing on his republic's 5 year plan, which like most 5 year plans was economic nonsense. In search of reality he took a field party of his students to one of the nearby famine threatened villages. His group analysed that all 42 of the village's small businesses (such as tiny farm plots and market stalls) were indeed going bust unless they could borrow a tiny total $27 on reasonable terms.
The first thought was to give the $27 as charity. But Yunus lectured that a social business dollar, which had to be paid back after careful use in an income generating activity was much more effective than a charity dollar, which might be used only once and
frittered away. The careful use of loans in very small quantities, says Yunus "means that you bring in a business model, you become concerned about the costs, the revenue, how to bring more efficiency, new technology, how to redesign, every year you
review the whole thing. Charity doesn't bring that whole package".
Mercifully, all those first 42 tiny loans were fully repaid, and lent back. After 9 years of further experiments, Yunus in 1983 founded his Grameen Bank. Its priority was to make loans that were desperately needed by those of the poor that did repay them. Indeed, he argues that "access to credit is a human right so long as that credit is repaid". This is the reverse of the usual banking priority, which is first (and in credit crunches only) to make the safest loans those to the rich that can provide collateral.
In these last 25 years, Grameen has provided increasing $billions of loans to poor people with that astonishing 99% repayment rate. In 2006, it had 7 million borrowing customers, 97% of them
women, in 140,000 villages of Bangladesh. Microcredit had by then reached 80% of Bangladesh's poorest rural families. Over half of Grameen's own borrowers had successful small businesses. The women borrowers predominated because they usually are the
poorest people in rural Islam and proved best in paying back. When a Grameen bank manager goes to a new village, he has entrepreneurially to seek for poor but viable borrowers. He earns a star if he achieves 100% repayment of loans, and other stars if his customers are fulfilling most of the 16 guarantees that all customers are asked to pledge, ranging from intensive vegetable growing, through sending all their children to school, to renouncing dowries. A branch with no stars would be in danger of closing, so borrowers rally round with suggestions, such as which unreliable repayers to exclude. Borrowers from the bank who do
repay are called owners of the bank and receive incentives such as opportunities for insurance, and for winning university scholarships for their children.

A GENERATION ON - ENTREPRENEURIAL FUTURES ARE MOBILISING
An extraordinary income generator was the profession of telephone ladies. They borrowed enough to buy a cheap mobile phone from a Grameen subsidiary. They draw fees for phoning to see if more profitable prices for crops are available in a neighbouring village, and from anybody who wants to hire the phone to contact the outside world. This is a job that could only become important in a microcredit setting. The owner of a mobile phone in richer suburbia would not find many customers to hire her set.
One special desire of Yunus was to improve the nutrition of poor children in Bangladesh, and he formed a social business with the largest French food multinational. This Grameen-Danone test marketed to find what sorts of fortified yogurt Bangladeshi children would like. Although Danone at first wanted large plants with refrigerated systems, Grameen won the debate to make them
small plants which bought local milk learnt a lot about sales of a new product in poor countries. A French water company is forming a similar social business with Grameen to offer a clean water alternative to the arsenic found in Bangladesh's rural water supply. Some American computer tycoons may help to find the best way to establish computer centres in remote villages. The
telephone ladies will then face competition, but constant
competition in new technology is one name of this game.

Nobody is suggesting that Goldman Sachs, when it recovers,should operate precisely in Yunus' mode. But some competition in sharply cutting costs in most banks will have to be part of the world's new banking system.

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What Everybody Needs to Know First About Economics

Economics designs peoples futures but this depends on what logics are analysed- here are the logics The Economist used in the early 19080s when it discussed how the net gneration could be the most productive time for youth

  

A nation/place cannot sustain growth unless its capital is structured so that family's savings are invested in their next generation's productivity. Norman Macrae's 1954 book on The London Capital Market provides chapter and verse. Historically it was timely as London's industrial revolution had planted most of the developed world's laws and financial instruments. Futurewise this book became a source for Norman's forty years of leadership challenges including 3000 editorials. THese became branded in the 2 genres of entrepreneurial revolution and future history of the net generation genre which he focused on from 1972. They script in practical details most of the changes that economists would need to make to historic rules if globalisation is not to collapse the worldwide financial system of 2010s

Norman framed his writings on future purposes huan most wanted around the idea that The Net Generation to 2024 would face change on a scale never previously experienced by our human race. To prevent risks and celebrate job creating opportunities Norman proposed in his 1984 book (The 2024 Report) that the world should unite around youth's most exciting millennium goal. He explained why economics would design the most popular futures if the goal was chosen as racing to end poverty everywhere. Reasons included: its possible, its exciting, it creates jobs post-industrial generation will need to design around collaborative technology, it can empower youth to joyfully unite cultures as we become borderless (more connected than separated), it aligns economics principles with nature's exponentially (compounding) rules of evolutionary selection which are community-up and open.

 download more profiles of 100 collaboration leaders of 2010s = youths most productuive decade 

 

We are shocked how few people know of the main findings of the renowned economist Maynard Keynes- increasingly only economics riles the world and the greatest risk to the future working lives of our children comes from elderly macroeconomists who hire themselves out to the biggest who want to get bigger.



Historically when faulty systems of macroeconomists ruined civilisations they fell one by one. But Einstein took Keynes logic further and hypothesised that the first generation to become more connected than separated by technology would be subject to a final exam. Now if we let erroneous macroeconomists rule whole continents of nations will collapse.



By 1976 my father (Norman macrae) -probably the last student of economics mentored by Keynes-  was writing at The Economist why the next half century would see the net generation tested - he called upon the genre of Entrepreneurial Revolution (ER) networkers to sort out the greatest  innovation challenge economics - and so the human race - will ever face .

 

 

logo320.jpg.

The opportunity of 10 times more productivity for the net generation (with million times more collaboration technology than man's 1960's race to moon)

.The THREAT is preventing the threat of collapsing continent-wide system of value exchange. By 2020 the (exponential track impacting future) sustainanbilyty of every village around the globe will likely be lost or won

..logo3responsibility.jpg...How could we be experiencing record youth unemployent when we are living in a time of a million times more collaboration tech than a generation ago? According to research by Entrepreneur networks started at The Economist in 1976, we are 36 years off track in compounding 2 unustainable systems whose follies multiply each other
  • that caused by non-economic media which also distracts us with glossy images and soiundbites instead of future realities and integrated cross-cultural and inter-generational understanding - full briefing here
  • World's biggest maths error compounded by macroeconomists and all global professions with a ruling monopoly - see below
Discuss: what does everyone need to know about the way economists think and behave. Understand 2 opposite segments of E : The Unacknowledged Microeconomist and the Fatally Conceited.MacroEconomist

Keynes - because economics will incresingly rule the world, the greatest danger to the futures of youth is elderly macroeconomists where fame maks them compete to superpower over peoples  

 Boulding: ****the historic significance of capitalism is precisely a society in which exchange has become a more important source of power than threat**** in his book economics as science

Von hayek- given the fatal conceit in my profession, I really think you shouldn't be doing this - awarding me a first Nobel Prize in economics 
freedom of speech and everything about the future you want, NOW depends on enough people knowing how to play the value exchange game - and why that isnt exactly what the game of monopoly teaches - an exchange is where each side says I wants something from you so let's work out what I can do for you and purposefully improve on this over time through hi-trust communal feedback
debate difference between true capitalism and phoney capitalism
  • agree on a picture like that on the right- we have seen cases where one of the 10 coordinates shown felt the system had betrayed their greatest trust, and so zeroised the organsaition or network (even ones that accountants had been reprorting record profits ahd $100 billion equity
  •  start discussing multi-win models - see our 4 favorites from 36 years of debates with entrepreneuruial revoltionaries
  • choose say 12 markets whose future purpose is most vital to sustaining your children - and use media to agree what the greatest human purpose and corresponding mkilennium goals are that need investing in to fee each market and youth's working lives in serving the most valuable purpose
  • get those (including all parents?) who save across generations to throw out speculators from banking systems and capital markets - eg next time there is a bailout (which means taking your childrens money to refinance a bank) wipe out shareholders; let them set lawyers on old managers and any politicians their pr's lobbied; keep savings accounts safe; restructure bank so that it invests in youth productivity and sustaining communities not bubbles, and not trapping people in debt

Goodwill explains up to 90% of value impacts of any organsaition in a networked economy- yet no nation yet requires that organisations it licences to audit goodwii. 20 years of research has proved the following reciprocal relationship - the purposeful question" who would uniquely miss what if your organsaition did not exist?, has the reciprocal question why let your organisation contnue to exist if it has broken my life-crtiical trust it promised to serve

joyofeconomics.jpg

.........................................

valuetrue capitalism maps how each side win-win-win from other sides communal purpose over time -this  goes back over 250 years to the criteria of free markets adam smith demanded freedom of speech questioned - he talked about the transparency of community markets where a rogue trader might fool some of the people but not for long and not for too big to fail! - the journal of social business edited by adam smith scholars at his alma mater Glasgow University advises people of any other tongue how to build up from adam's hi-trust ideas to such constructs as sustainable global vilage networking first mapped by schumacher (another keynes alumni) - we have a library of free articles for you to choose and translate from

phoney capitalism spins a monopoly, a non-free maket - one side rules by saying I want to take more and more from all of you- esentially this is what rules when global accountants audit only how much one side has profited/extracted withouth how much has it sustains other sides- phoney capitalism can only result in exponentai meltdown becuase so much has been extracetd from system that its unsustainable for human lives or for nature or for both
 
 

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  • MORE ABOUT WHERE VALUING NETGEN CAME FROM

    - in the 1990s I was working with big 5 accountants; I argued for a missing audit they needed to do as regularly as their monetisation audit; I called this how goodwill modelling multiplies value around a gravitational purspoe ewhise gials all sides want to progress over time; it turns out that in knowlege scetors over 90% of the future is bayesian predicatbale on quality of goodwill relationships-3 yeras before andersen crashed I usd this model to warn them that if they stoped multiplying conflicts around true and fair they would be zeroised by society- I didnt succeed in getting my advice to be acted on but at that time unseen wealth publications made by brookings and georgetwon had just been banned by the incolimng bush adminsitration - who didnt like to be told that without the second aidt risks would compound unseen- every collapse USA has seen a hand in during 2000s (and viralised to other nations since 2008) can be traced to this mathenatical error

    what can be done about this mess
    -debate difference between true cpaitalism and phoney capitalsim
    choose say 12 markets hose future purpose is most vital to sustaining your children - and use media to aggree what the greatest huan purspose and corresponding mkilennium goals are that need investing in
    get thse who save across generations to throw out speculators from bankiing systems - eg next time there is a bailout (which means taking your childrens money to refinace a bank) wipe out sharehilers; let them set lawyers on old managers and any politicians their pr's lobbied; keep savings acconts safe; restructure bank so that it invests in youth productivity and sustaining communities not bubbles, and trapping people in debt
    -if you do this today's millions times more coalbration technology than a generation ago can make the next decade the most productive time and joyful for youty and everyine to be alive instead of the most dismal time where natios led by old macroecnomist put youth out of work
    DO YOU KNOW...
    Q: Original Purpose of Economics? A The Scotland of the 1750s was at the end of a first generation to have found their country taken over by England's Empire., So Adam Smith was motivated to start writing about how to design systems so that peoples could could look forward to their next generation sustaining more productive lives than they had had ... 7 quarters later keynes general theory issued humanity's greatest challenge- economics as a systems science had reached the state that only economics rules the world ... moreQ: What do the man-made systems that rule the world look like? A Purposeful value exchanges composed round 5 main flows of how productively peoples lives are used and 5 main demands human beings make as co-workers, customers, owners, stewards of the globe, stewards of society at the village level - moreQ: Why can't human race in 21st C be sustained with choice of economics made by 20th C biggest banks and govs etc? A Long Story: ER alumni are in their 37th year of offering debating scripts eg1 on wht some industrial age systems after world war 2 were designed to be too big to exist as the first net generation became more connected than separated by geographical borders ... What is known is that 2010s is most exciting decade to be an entrpreneur because our impacts define what will be possible for all our childrens' children more 

    World Class Brands are in 25th year (as a subnetwork of Norman Macrae's Entrepreneurial Revolution) of helping sustain the most purposeful organsiations or markets in the world. Core to any charter of purpose is a quiz revolving round this question
    - who would uniquely miss what if this didn't exist?. From this Q&A's list of trust-flows, economics maps how to connect producers and demanders of the exchange in multi-win models of purpose. Henceforth, potential conflicts with this goodwill model are audited and resolved at every cycle so that unique purpose is celebrated to lead the future by continuously multiplying the most value and trust. This model provides the simplest benchmark around all exponential impact metrics of sustainability investement can be calculated and the transparency of all multi-win models are webbed around pro-youth economics. Questions welcomed chris.macrae@yahoo.co.uk washington dc hotline 1 301 881 1655

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    Not youth's economics of the world Not our schools of the worldYouthandYunus.comLeadersandYunus

    Muhammad Yunus expresses faith in entrepreneurs at G20 summit

    Posted on: November 23, 2011
    Category: News

    Microfinance Focus, November 4, 2011: Professor Muhammad Yunus was invited to deliver a key note speech during the G20 Young Entrepreneurs Summit held in Nice, France. Professor Yunus addressed an audience of more than 400 entrepreneurs from all G20 countries. In his speech, he shared his personal entrepreneurship experiences, his faith in young entrepreneurs to be the pillars of society and the need to include poor countries in the discussion process in making global decisions.

    Professor Yunus being an entrepreneur himself started off creating the Grameen Bank that provides microfinance services to the poor who had little access to financial provisions. From that, he ventured into a wide number of social businesses such as Grameen Nursing College, Grameen Eyecare Hospitals, Grameen Shakti, etc.

    He has always considered young entrepreneurs to be the most effective solution for the future. He said “In my opinion, G20 YES is a fabulous initiative, gathering so much energy and momentum from all over the world. Because of their creativity and leadership, provided that they commit to share the value they create, these 400 young entrepreneurs in this room can change the world.”

    Professor Yunus is also a member of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) Advocacy Group, advising the Secretary General of the United Nations. Hence, he believes that the next generation of youths should be handed over the process of the MDGs as soon as possible. He believes that entrepreneurs will have a key role to play in fulfilling the MDGs, if they are committed to the social value created by their companies, and social business can be part of the solutions.

    In his speech, he added that the G20 needed to broaden its scope to deal with the current world crisis. It can no longer remain a political forum with economic agendas. The G20 needs to create a social agenda as well. Professor Yunus proposes that ‘social business’ should be brought to the agenda of G20, as one of the concrete and effective solutions to be considered for immediate implementation so as to guide capitalistic investment towards social value and jobs creation, rather than sheer profit maximization strategies. A social business is a cause-driven business where profits stay within the company for its sustainability.

    Lastly, Professor Yunus concluded that the G20 should be expanded into the G25, where poor countries from each continent should be included in the global agenda which they are part of. He added that “Their problems are inter-related with others, and their proposals of solutions should be considered by the most economically advanced countries in making global decisions. A G25 would be a big step toward ensuring that global social issues are raised, and MDGs implementation is fully shared on the global agenda. And finally, because fighting poverty together is the only way to bring long lasting peace in this world.”

    Source: http://www.microfinancefocus.com/muhammad-yunus-expresses-faith-entrepreneurs-g20-summit

    inquiries chris macrae info @worldcitizen.tv us tel 301 881 1655 ; us office 5801 nicholson lane suite 404, North Bethesda, MD 20852 USA - skype chrismacraedc
     Mapping is a process of discovery. Crucially maps are only as usable as updating correctness of bottom up information. Think of your own use of a map. You look for the "you are here arrow". You want to be directed to somewhere/someone you dont know how to get to; you want your return vist to be safe as well as a value multiplying win-win.
    Does anyone remember the simplest findings of einstein and jon von neumann. Einstein proved that to innovate more value you need to go more micro in what you model; von neumann showed that there is more value to be networked by interfacing safe flows across systems instead of ruling over separation of boundaries. There isnt a single global metrics profession that gets these mathematical -and natural - principles right. Unless we change this global markets will cycle through ever greater collapse and more and more communities will lose sustainability. Mapmaking is that critical an idea to what the net genration will achieve in 2010s; but its also one that children from primary age up can action learn. Its simple. Its just that it works the other way round from top-down people's fatal conceit.
    It explores how to make the invisible principles and practices of real wealth creation visible, and therefore useable. Our planet needs case studies underline the search for new win-wins that build ‘system integrity’
    Trust-flow is the unseen wealth to invest sustainability in. Tranpsarently mapped it develops a goodwill gravity  tyhat invites with roleplayer in a community to multiply goodwill while sustaining their own cashflow.. Trust is not some vague, mushy, abstract warm-hearted sentiment. It is an economic powerhouse – probably just as economically and socially important as oil.
    The point is, there are specific things you need to do to get trust flowing, just as there are specific things you need to do to get oil flowing. And like oil trust has a dark side. Right now, the world is awash with the carbon emissions which threaten the stability and sustainability of its ecosystems. Right now, the world is also awash with the ‘carbon emission’ of trust – mistrust. Indeed it may well be that our ability to tackle the one issue – the threat of environmental catastrophe – depends on our ability to tackle the other issue: how to generate, deepen, extend and sustain trust.>br>But what is the best way of doing this? One thing is for sure. You don’t build and sustain trust via some sentimental exercise of goodwill to all and sundry. There are three very simple principles at the heart of effective trust generation. 
    First, trust is generated via win-win relationships. It’s virtually impossible to generate or sustain trust without mutual benefit for those involved. But beneficial outcomes are not enough in themselves. For trust to be built and sustained, both sides need to signal a demonstrable commitment to finding win-win ways forward. Such a  commitment may require real changes to what we say and do. Second, real ‘win-wins’ are hardly ever purely financial or material. You don’t build trust simply by walking away with more cash in your pocket. Trust works at all the dimensions and levels of human exchange. Yes, it’s about financial and material rewards. But it’s also about purpose (what people want to achieve). It’s about politics with a small ‘p’: the use and abuse of power, the crafting and application of rules of fair play. And it’s about emotions: the sometimes overwhelmingly strong emotions, both positive and negative, that are generated when people deal with other peopleWhat’s constitutes a ‘win’ – a sense of real improvement – is therefore highly specific. It depends absolutely on the details of who the parties are, what they are trying to achieve, in what context. Building trus, therefore involves discovering these specifics. Just as oil doesn’t flow out of the ground, get refined and pump its way into motor vehicles automatically and without effort, so identifying and doing what is necessary to get trust flowing requires dedicated, skilled effort. It requires a disciplined, structured process, not a vague sentiment.

    3) Third, even if we do steps 1) and 2) there’s still a good chance it won’t succeed. Why? Because it ignores an invisible third factor. In the real world, purely two way bilateral relationships don’t exist. There is always a third party whose interests or outcomes are affected by what the other two parties do but who is not a party to the contract. The environment is a case in point. Producers and consumers may both benefit from buying and selling to each other – but what happens if, in doing so, they destroy the environment they both depend on?

    This raises a hugely important question. When two parties pursue win-wins and build mutual trust, are they doing so in a way which creates a win and builds trust for the third party at the same time? Or are they simply pushing the problems – and the mistrust – further down the line on to this third party? Building vigorous, healthy networks of trust is a different kettle of fish to ‘you scratch my back and I’ll scratch yours’ win-win conspiracies. It requires a Map of all the key relationships plus careful consideration of knock-on consequences. It requires a different perspective.

    These three simple, basic steps do not happen automatically. They need to be worked at. The territory needs to be deliberately Mapped and explored. What’s more, there are obstacles in our way – mental and practical obstacles that need to be cleared. Prevailing economic theories about ‘rational economic man’ for example, deny the need to commit to win-win outcomes. Instead, they promote supposedly ‘rational’ (i.e. narrowly selfish behaviours) which actively undermine trust The same theories insist that the only valid measure of human benefit is money, thereby excluding from consideration many of the biggest opportunities for improvement. Meanwhile many vested interests do not want to extend the circle of trust to third parties and complete networks because their positions of power depend on their ability to take advantage of the weaknesses of these third parties. That’s another job for Mapping: helping to identify and mount such obstacles.
    The potential benefits of doing so are unthinkably huge. They start with a simple negative: the relief that comes from when you stop banging your head against a brick wall. Mistrust breeds wasteful, wealth destroying conflict that tends to feed on itself. Anger and hatred engender anger and hatred. Simply easing or stopping the terrible waste of mistrust would transform prospects for many millions of people. We desperately need to find ways of doing this. Then there are the positive benefits. Understanding the real nature of human wealth – all those dimensions of purpose, ‘politics’ and emotion as well as money and material comfort – means we can start being human again; human in the way we think, and act. What’s more, many of these intangible benefits won’t cost a penny. They’re there for the taking, if only we puts our minds to it.
    But there’s more, because trust is also an economic superpower in its own right. In the pages that follow we will show conclusively that material and financial riches are also dependent on trust. In fact, we will argue the case for going one step further. We will say that material and financial riches are a by-product of trust: the visible fruits of invisible, intangible human exchange. Once you understand that sustainable cash flows are a by-product of sustainable trust flows, your understanding of what makes a successful business is transformed.
    Separately, each of these three fruits – reducing the waste of conflict, unleashing the potential intrinsic benefits of human exchange, and energising the sustainable creation of material wealth – are massive in their own right. Put them together and they represent a vast new continent of opportunity.
    As we said, this book is addressed to entrepreneurs and system  innovation revolutionaries. Wherever you happen to be, whatever the change you want to make is, the principles explored in this book apply. The wish to change and the will to change are not the same as being able to change successfully. For that you need to understand your territory. You will need new Maps

    joyofeconomics.jpg

    0.1 Has a continental or worldwide search solutions on job creation that can be replicated across communities been organised before this EU launch of Nov 2011?
    While alumni of entrepreneurial economics have always valued job creation searches- we know of no clear evidence that this has been top of mind in the way that continental-wide government has operated since 1984 even though it was scripted by The Economist's Unacknowledged Giant as the number 1 question the first net generation would need to mediate if sustainable futures and humanity's most needed millennium goals are to be served
    what's different about nov 2011 is 4 top directorates of the EU have nailed their future reputation to this search -more
    1mobamauniobamauni@obamauni bon mots hillary zero sum thinking leads to negative sum results http://www.erworld.tv/id347.html
    1hHCL TechnologiesHCL Technologies@hcltech Press Release: #HCLT listed for the fourth consecutive year in the @WorldBlu's "Most Democratic Workplaces" list. http://hclte.ch/KbzBGH Retweeted by Traci Fenton
    49mAl RobertsonAl Robertson@al_robertson About last night's British Council @time_image film collection launch, with three of my favourite BC films! http://bit.ly/IJwmsc #WhoWereWe Retweeted by Lloyd Davis

    The End of the EU part 1 http://www.pbs.org/newshour/rundown/2012/06/paul-krugman-on-europe-doing-the-unthinkable.html

    TRANSCRIPT: 'The Unthinkable'
    Video above.

    Tom Ashbrook: You're talking about, writing about the end of the EU, the end of the common currency.

    Paul Krugman: it's unthinkable except that continuing down the current path is unthinkable. Spain is actually the epicenter. The Spanish government did nothing wrong. Spain was running a budget surplus before the crisis. It had low levels of debt. But it had a monstrous housing bubble, as did a lot of places, largely financed by the way by German banks which were lending to Spanish banks, which then lent on. And when the housing bubble burst you were left with a severe, extremely severe recession, and so the answer has been government austerity which just makes the slump deeper.

    The alternatives to a breakup of the euro have to be Europe-wide solutions. And so the solution, if there is one, involves accepting a higher rate of inflation for Europe as a whole and that particularly means higher inflation in Germany.
    --Paul Krugman

    What are Spain's alternatives here? Well, if they still had their currency, their own currency, the answer would be devalue, let the peseta drop, Spanish exports would become a lot more competitive, they'd be well on their way to recovery. They don't have their own currency, so people are saying: Well, you have to do all this stuff to stay within the Euro. At some point you say: Well, you know if your answer to our problem is just ever more suffering, ever more you know... 25 percent, 50 percent youth unemployment. If that's your notion of a solution, then maybe although it would be a very terrible thing to have the Euro breakup, maybe that's better than what we're doing. So that's becoming a real possibility now.

    The alternatives to a breakup of the euro have to be Europe-wide solutions. And so the solution, if there is one, involves accepting a higher rate of inflation for Europe as a whole and that particularly means higher inflation in Germany. Talk to the Germans about this and of course they go crazy, but you have to say to them: What is your answer? What you're doing right now is just a path to the collapse of the euro with enormous damage and radicalization and a lot of things that you don't want to see happen in Europe happening.

    TA: If the Germans can't take their foot off the brakes, they're just intrinsically and against history and everything else, Weimar, if they can't do it, what happens?

    PK: Then Europe breaks up and... No, I mean I think it's that stark. It really is, it really is that extreme because you know it's one of those things, you can't be saying that, but then you say: Well, let's talk this through. You know, let's as it said in the original edition of the Godfather - Let us reason together. Right? What are the ways that this can work out? And the current path is not one that can work out.

    It's like an irresistible force hitting an immovable object. On the one hand it's unthinkable that they'll allow the euro to fail because the euro is a terribly important thing, it's not terribly important economically, it would have been better off if they'd, if they had never done it, but now that it has been done, for it to fail is a defeat for the European project, the whole project of bringing peace, democracy, integration to a continent with a terrible history. So it's unthinkable that they'll allow it to fail, but it's also unthinkable that the Germans will accept moderate inflation which is the only solution any of us have been able to come up with. So one of two impossible things is going to happen. Your bet.

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