Clinton Global Initiative 2006 Transcripts - click numbers on this page for full transcript . These numbers also index: CEOS: who are discovering
a human mission in life beyond just making the last quarter's numbers regardless of future conseqeunces: 97 &
83 Virgin's Branson; Googles' Page; Microsoft's Gates; Cisco's Chambers; Starbuck's Donald; Siemens'
Kleinfeld; Yahoo's Semel; Sony's Stringer;104 Grupo Carso's Slim;95 Infosys' Nilekani; 104 News International's
Murdoch; Reed Elsevier's Hommen;Standard Charters' Davies; Larfarge's Collomb; 103 TNT's Bakker; Best
Buy's Anderson; Swiss Re's Aigrain;104 Wall-Mart's Scott ; 101 Timberland Comany's Swartz; 78 Ethan
91 Financing Clean Energy : Executive Director from Fundacion Solar, Ivan Azurdia Bravo;
Chairman of Development Alternatives, Dr. Ashok Khosla; Founder, Green Belt Movement, Professor Wangari Maathai. And please
welcome back our moderator, John Podesta.
Grassroots World Changers; Yunus (Nobel
Laureate 2006 Peace - Micro Entrepreneur Economics):Maathai (Nobel Laureate 2004 Peace- Biomass Economics): Abed, BRAC,World's
Largest Citizen Organisation- deepest franchises of health and education for & by the very poorest; Drayton Origin of
Social Entrepreneur Maps (2000 coordinates funded), and Changemakers.net peoples competitions: eg peace, health, buildings;
Ashok Khosla, Ivan Bravo
Sustainability Venture Capitalists & Systemic Entreprenurial
Revolutionaries: Richard Branson (3 billion $ for Climate Crisis), Vinod Khosla
ambassadors & Journalists for Humanity
CEOs (Crisis Initiative Sponsor): Larry
Page (google & Climate), Rupert Murdoch(News International & Climate), Nandan Nilekani Infosys,
National or Race Leaders (Past & Present): Bill Clinton, Laura Bush, Al Gore, Hillary Clinton
97 special commitments: Branson, Yunus, Gore, Khosla et al
83 Chairman and Founder, Virgin Group Limited Sir Richard Branson. Partner, Khosla Venture,
Vinod Khosla. CEO and Co-founder, Rocky Mountain Institute, Amory Lovins. Presidential Chief of Staff, Government of Brazil,
Dilma Vanna Rousseff. And please welcome back the Honorable Carol Browner.
104 What Can Business Do? - William Jefferson Clinton;And panelists:
Chairman of the Board, Grupo Carso, Mr. Carlos Slim; Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, News Corporation, Rupert Murdoch;
General Colin L. Powell, President and Chief Executive Officer, Wal-Mart, H. Lee Scott, Jr. &
moderator Tom Brokaw ... Rupert Murdoch (publishing) joins industry sectors committed to zero footprint futures:
Industry sectors on zero
footprint goal: " Our
is going to absolutely carbon neutral. And it’s a company employing thousands of people.
think it does a lot for the reputation of the company. It improves its image. It makes it more valuable. That’s good
for the shareholders too. But it’s good for the society. This involves ttle incentives that all add up and they are
all a mess. Whether it’s changing from a taxi company to one that only uses non carbon fuels. We subsidize every employee
$2,000 who will buy a hybrid car. We are looking at everything we do, our suppliers, every thing they supply to us, boxes
or whatever. What fuels are they using, what are they doing.
Then where we will fall short at the end, we
are committed to put in ¯ you know a wood farm or forest in certain parts of the world to make up the difference. We
are doing that and we are now examining whether we can do it across the world for our whole company in every country in which
we operate. .. That people want to feel proud of who they are working for or what company they are involved with and feel
proud of it. And they want to feel they are being good citizens and they can talk to other people about it. And I think that
we have learned a lot today. I think we have seen how far things have progressed in the last few years. You know it’s
the market system somebody said working very well because people see this is good business"
Global Health Working Session: Healthy Workers and Productive Businesses: Ensuring
Home and Workplace Wellness 103- Peter Bakker, Carol Jacobs, Jonathan Oppenheimer and Michael White. moderaor: Michelle Norris. 102 Susan Arnold, President Jakaya Kikwete, and Richard Stearns. moderator: Michele Norris.
Mitigating Religious and Ethnic Conflict: Preventing and Resolving Deadly Conflict 101 Don Cheadle, actor and activist, John Prendergast, senior advisor of the international crisis group,
and Jeffrey Swartz, President and CEO of The Timberland Company. 100 Hanan Ashwari, The Palestinian Initiative for the Promotion of Global Dialog and Democracy, MIFTAH; Eival
Gilady, Portland Trust, Tel Aviv; Ghassan Salame, CNRS CERI. r moderator: George Mitchell, DLA Piper.
Poverty Alleviation Working Session:
Financing Ideas, Initiatives and Innovations 98 : Majora Cater, executive director, Sustainable South Bronx. Andrew Natsios, professor diplomacy,
Georgetown University and Dr. Ngozi Okanojo-Iweala, former finance minister of Nigeria. Our moderator is James Wolfensohn,
chairman, Wolfensohn and Co. LLC.
95 Cities of the Future Jamie Lerner, former mayor of Curitiba, Brazil; Ken Livingston, mayor of London;
William McDonough, Nandan Nilekani, chief executive officer Infosys Technologies Limited; our moderator,
84 WorldHeatlh: Dr. Peter Hotez, the president of Sabine Vaccine Institute and the chair of the Global
Network for neglected tropical disease control at George Washington University. Dr. Sam Zaramba the director general of Health
Services in Uganda .Jimmy Carter 39th President of USA and founder of the Carter Center who has been focusing the attention
of the world on problem of neglected diseases. eg. The president’s efforts on Guinea worm have eliminated this
disease in 99.7-percent of the world. Moderator George Stephanopoulos
85 Worldhealth: Moderator George Stephanopoulos ;Lance Armstrong, Valentine Fuster (president of the World Health Foundation, and a professor of cardiology at Mount
Sinai) ; Srinath Reddy (one of the first to warn of an impending epidemic of cardiovascular
disease and diabetes in India, and has been one of the world’s most proactive leaders in stemming the spread of chronic
diseases. He is president of the Public Health Foundation of India,) ;, and Nizal Sarraf Zadegan (She
is director of the Cardiovascular Research Center in Isfahan, Iran. )
79: Mitigating conflicts: Alastair Crooke of the Conflicts Forum; Mark Drewell of Barloworld International;
Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga, Former President of the Democratic Socialist Republic of Sri Lanka. our moderator, President
78 Mitigating Conflicts: John Battle, member of Parliament, United Kingdom; Farooq Kathwari,
Chairman, President and CEO of the Ethan Allan Interiors, Inc., Dominque Strauss-Kahn, member of Parliament and former Minister,
France. our moderator, Mary Robinson, of Realizing Rights, the Ethical Globalization Initiative.
92: Summing up with video link to Nelson Mandela; and by Bill Clinton and Initiative rapporteurs. Nelson Mandela "[Via
video feed]: I am delighted to speak with you today on such a wonderful and important occasion as the closing session of the Clinton Global Initiative.
The mission of this gathering and the problems you have all planned to fight compel
me to join you here today in support of your efforts. I first want to applaud my friend
Bill Clinton, and his vision and determination to convene this audience and mobilize
a new force to address the greatest challenges the world faces at the start of the
21st century. I commend you for accepting President Clinton’s call to action.
The Clinton Global Initiative is a tremendously unique and critical gathering of human
beings committed to the move from rhetoric to action -- action on an unprecedented
scale. This Initiative is a global movement where every word spoken, every partnership
discovered, and every promise made can have a direct impact on the lives of millions
of people across our planet for generations to come. We must ask ourselves a question:
What can I do as a global citizen? Your commitments can become a powerful tool in shaping
a better world. And the results they achieve hold much promise and hope for us all.
I thank you most sincerely for your commitment. Let us combine our efforts to ensure
a peaceful future for our children.:
HILLARY RODHAM CLINTON: Miland Revere
board chair of Vital Voices Global Partnership and her partners are Maria Eitel, president of the Nike Foundation; Ray Ferguson,
CEO of the American Standard Chartered Bank; Sandra Taylor, vice president Corporate Social Responsibility for Starbucks Coffee
Company and Exxon Mobil. They have committed to holding a conference in January of 2007, making a commitment of $1 million
to convene a Pan African Women’s Leadership Summit, the purpose of which is to connect more than 200 African women ... Dr. Zeda Rosenberg, CEO of the International Partnership for Microbicides, known as IPM. IPM
and its partner Harvard University and Partners in Health will commit $3 million over the next three years to support access
to microbicides for the prevention of HIV transmission, and to help develop a broader framework to bring innovative global
public health goods to low resource settings. ...Ajay Banga, chairman and CEO of Citigroup’s Global Consumer Group International.
Citigroup will be expanding its programs to support sustainable microfinance institutions by $100 million over five years.
...Dr. Allan Rosenfield. Those of us in public health work, or who have supported
the soldiers on the frontlines of public health, know this name very well. Dr. Rosenfield is the dean of the Mailman School
of Public Health at Columbia University. The Mailman School will be making a five-year $75 million commitment to help
improve women’s health, decrease maternal death and disability, provide prevention, care and treatment for women infected
with HIV/AIDS and decrease the incidence of violence against women in conflict areas. PANEL:Reema Nanavaty is the director
of the Economic and Rural Development of Self-Employed Women’s Association (SEWA) in India. ; Ann Veneman assumed
the leadership of UNICEF on May 1, 2005, ; Ajay Banga is chairman and
chief executive officer of Citigroup’s Global Consumer Group International Businesses. Dr Gayle, president and CEO of
CARE. She is the first woman and first person of color to lead this premier humanitarian organization in its 60-year history.
81 Mitigating conflicts: Salman Ahmad, Musician and UN AIDS Goodwill Ambassador. Susan Marks of Search for Common Ground. Jeff
Skoll, The Skoll Foundation and Participant Productions. our moderator, Zain Verjee.
80 Mitigating conflicts: His Highness Shaikh Salman bin Hamad bin Isa Al-Khalif, Crown Prince and Commander-in-Chief of the
Bahrain Defense Force; Richard Cizik of the National Association of Evangelicals; Vartan Gregorian of the Carnegie Corporation
or New York. our moderator, Zain Verjee
88 Diversity in a globalised world: Queen of the Royal Hashmeite Kingdom of Jordan, Queen
Rania Al-Abdullah, President Islamic Republic of Afghanistan, Hamid Karzai, Archbishop Emeritus, Desmond Tutu, moderator,
Editor of Newsweek International Fareed Zakaria.
87 Poverty Alleviation Nick Moon of Kickstart International [applause], Jacqueline Novogratz of the Acumen Fund
[applause], and the honorable Ernesto Zedillo of the Yale Center for Globalization, the former President of Mexico, moderator
86 CHARLAYNE HUNTER-GAULT: KRISTIN PETERSON: Inveneo; PREMAL SHAH: Kiva.org Judith McHale, the CEO of the Discovery Communications and the Discovery Channel:Discovery Global Education Partnership;
partnership’s a key word, which I’ll get to in a moment, which now operates in ten countries. We have close to
200 educational sites. We reached 500,000 kids; and our goal is to reach a million kids by 2010. To date we’ve trained
over 7000 teachers to – in the way that they can use video in the classroom.
90 Clean Energy Investment Boom. Managing director Goldman Sachs, Abby Joseph Cohen. Partner in Kleiner, Perkins, Caufield and
Byers, John Doerr; Executive Vice President, Ecoenergy Mexico, John Paul Moscarella and our moderator, president and CEO Center
for American Progress, John Podesta.
82 Climate: renewable electric power: Vice President Johnson and Johnson Corporate, Dr. Brenda S. Davis, CEO Solar Century Jeremy
Leggett, Chairman and Managing Director, Suzlan Energy, Tulsi R. Tanti, and our moderator Principal, the Albright Group, the
Honorable Carol Browner.
Details of Skoll's top 10
menu of 2007 from your bookmark- would love to hear from people who already love one of these- what more can they tell us
about why this is a current best replicator of its sort? Also would you say that what Skoll is doing in colaborating with
other SE networks like ashoka is sifting out franchises ready to fly worldwide?
The 2007 Skoll Awardees
1 http://www.volvamos.org/controller.php?action=idioma&lenguaje=english&url_page=/Escuela Nueva Foundation – est 1987, has strengthened and promoted the Escuela Nueva (New School)
model in Colombia and abroad, demonstrating that with the right educational approach, any child can achieve high academic
standards and permanently escape poverty. The Escuela Nueva model now reaches more than 5 million children in 14 Latin American
countries, Uganda and the Philippines and the World Bank has recognized Escuela Nueva as one of the most innovative educational
programs in the developing world.
Headquarters: Bogota, Colombia
Grant Objective: To support the Escuela Nueva Foundation’s
Smart Scaling Campaign to reach an additional 1.5 million children by 2010 through current program expansion in Latin America
and Uganda and by launching new programs in India, Peru, Costa Rica and Bolivia.
http://www.freethechildren.com/ Free The Children – Free The Children , N America, recognizes the potential of young people to create positive
social change. More than 500,000 students have joined the organization’s Youth in Action groups in 1,000 schools across
the U.S. and Canada. They have shipped $11 million in essential medical supplies and have provided health care projects benefiting
more than 505,000 people.
Craig and Marc Kielburger
Grant Objective: To expand in the U.S. and establish 800 new
Youth in Action groups that raise an additional $1.5 million each year.
3 http://www.friends-international.org/ Friends-International – Since 1994, Friends-International has been running projects worldwide for and with street
children, attempting to reintegrate these children into society and providing positive alternatives to those who unwittingly
or out of economic necessity enable this phenomenon, such as taxis, Internet cafes, restaurants, hotels and tourists. Each
year 85,000 children benefit from programs operated by Friends-International and partner organizations in Cambodia, Laos,
Indonesia, Myanmar, Thailand, Honduras, France, Switzerland, the United States and Germany.
Social Entrepreneur: Sebastien Marot
Headquarters: Phnom Penh, Cambodia
Objective: To build a financially sustainable global network of partners capable of helping 500,000 street children each year.
4 http://www.footprintnetwork.org/ Global Footprint Network – To combat humanity’s consumption of ecological resources beyond sustainable
limits, Global Footprint Network developed the Ecological Footprint. The Ecological Footprint is used by Wales, Switzerland
and Japan, and by hundreds of other cities, counties, businesses, intergovernmental bodies and educational institutions.
Social Entrepreneurs: Mathis Wackernagel and Susan Burns
Headquarters: Oakland, California
Grant Objective: To add 15 national and/or international government agencies
using the Ecological Footprint to the partner network by 2010.
5 http://www.gramvikas.org/ Gram Vikas – Gram Vikas (Village Development) has developed a holistic approach to rural development in India
that involves entire communities, with water and sanitation as the starting point.The program has been
implemented in 289 villages, reaching 22,347 households and has successfully proven that the rural poor can and will pay for
better sanitation and water facilities.
Entrepreneur: Joe Madiath
Orissa, Ganjam, India
Grant Objective: To
bring water and sanitation to 100,000 families by 2010.
6 http://www.kashf.org/ Kashf Foundation – Kashf is a microfinance institution that offers women below the poverty line in Pakistan a
way out through access to financial services. est 1996 now assists 150,000 clients:delivers collateral-free microloans, savings
and life insurance products through branches that become sustainable within 10 months. Thirty-five percent of its clients
move out of poverty within three years.
Headquarters: Lahore, Pakistan
Grant Objective: To expand operations to 600,000 clients by 2010
in Pakistan’s Punjab and Sindh provinces.
7 http://www.manchesterbidwell.org Manchester Bidwell Corporation est 1984; raising graduation and college enrollment rates; reducingemployment for thousands
of young people each year in impoverished urban environments across the U.S. ; operates art and recording studios, computer
classrooms and industrial kitchens, among other facilities, demonstrating that an inspiring space and state-of-the-art equipment
lead to more motivated and engaged students.
Entrepreneur: William Strickland
Grant Objective: Support replication
programs in six cities that will serve 1,800 additional youths by 2009.
8 http://www.msc.org Marine Stewardship Council - To combat declining levels of wild fish stock, ;500 MSC-labeled products from 22 certified
fisheries are sold in 26 countries. Major companies such as Whole Foods in the U.S. and Marks and Spencer and Sainsbury in
the U.K. have stocked MSC seafood, and in 2006 Wal-Mart announced that it would begin to source all its fish from MSC-certified
Social Entrepreneur: Rupert Howes
Grant Objective: To increase market penetration in Europe, strengthen its U.S. presence,
expand into the Asia/Pacific arena and certify at least eight more fisheries by 2010.
http://www.verite.org/ Verité – Engaging workers in a solutions-driven, participatory model, Verité partners with hundreds
of multinational brands, sector leaders, factories, nongovernmental organizations, institutional investors and governments
to improve social and environmental performance of global supply chains. Verité currently operates in more than 60
countries in electronics, apparel, footwear, food and beverage, and agriculture industries, among others, with a growing network
of staff and partners. By bringing practical auditing, training, capability building and research solutions to stakeholders
of the global workplace, Verité improves the lives of global factory workers,
Social Entrepreneur: Dan Viederman
Headquarters: Amherst, Massachusetts
Objective: To strengthen partnerships in dozens of countries and train 1,500 practitioners to replicate its model by 2010,
with the potential to reach hundreds of thousands more workers worldwide.
10 http://www.youthbuild.org/ YouthBuild USA – To create a positive future for low-income young people who left high school without a diploma,
YouthBuild re-enrolls them in an alternativeschool where they complete high school and build affordable homes for their neighbors,
while transforming their own lives and becoming responsible citizens and good parents with well-paying jobs. Annually engagse
8,000 youths in 42 states and produces affordable housing for 1,000 low-income or homeless families.
Social Entrepreneur: Dorothy Stoneman
Headquarters: Somerville, Massachusetts
Grant Objective: To build a critical mass of role models and have 500 YouthBuild students communicate their experience
to audiences of millions, expand the program and fund a re-entry program for adjudicated youths in three states.
Barefoot College Wins 2006 Alcan Prize for Sustainability
winner of the 2006 Alcan Prize for Sustainability is Barefoot College, led by Bunker Roy. The $1 million award annually recognizes one nongovernmental organization, not-for-profit
or civil society organization working to build a sustainable society. The prize is managed independently by the International
Business Leaders Forum. Since 1972, Barefoot College has improved the lives of some of India’s poorest people by training
them to become health workers, teachers and engineers.
Riders for Health, led by Andrea and Barry Coleman, was honored at the national finals of the Ernst & Young Entrepreneur
of the Year awards. Competing against top entrepreneurs in the United Kingdom, the organization was named “Social Entrepreneur
of the Year” at a gala ceremony in London. Riders has developed vehicle maintenance and training systems to ensure that
African health workers can reach remote communities on a regular basis.
Ciudad Saludable, founded by Albina Ruiz, is one of 12 winners of the 2006 Dubai International Award for Best Practices
to Improve the Living Environment.
The awardees were all deemed to have made outstanding contributions toward improving
the quality of life in cities and communities. They were chosen from 690 submissions. Each will receive a trophy, a commemorative
certificate and a check for $30,000 at the awards ceremony in Dubai in early 2007. Ciudad Saludable generates employment and
facilitates cleaner cities in Peru by creating local enterprises to collect and process garbage.
Director Wins Creativity Award
The Women’s World Summit Foundation in Switzerland
has awarded Angeline Mugwendere of the Campaign for Female Education (CAMFED) the prize for Women’s Creativity in Rural Life. CAMFED founder Ann Cotton tells us that Angeline was one of
the first young women in Africa that her organization helped stay in school. Angeline is now the director of CAMFED Zimbabwe.
She will receive $3,000 to invest in her work with girls and young women.
Jefferson Award Goes to
Roots of Peace
Heidi Kühn, founder of Roots of Peace, has won a San Francisco Bay Area Jefferson Award from the American Institute for Public Services, a national foundation
that honors individuals who perform community service. In addition to being profiled in the San Francisco Chronicle,
she was featured on the CBS5-TV and KCBS-AM radio. Roots of Peace converts minefields to vineyards, agricultural fields and
safe migration corridors for wildlife.
As journalists who have written
up more biographies 1 2 on entrepreneurs for humanity than most, we are disgusted by how little economics has changed its
high priests in the last 22 years in spite of the very clear map we made in 1984 of the ever increasing system chnages economics would need to undergo - one of a series of work that built up to my father's vaedictory reviews after a lifetime of work
at The Economist. So we absolutely celebrate the 2006 Nobel Prize for peace but likethis Indian arcticle wonder when economics prizes will be freed from the voting of academic peer group cliques who are usually
funded by vested interests in big and macro, and not micro and sustainability
Development as a Nobel cause
Economist Muhammad Yunus and the Grameen Bank of Bangladesh win the Nobel
Peace Prize for 2006.
THERE are many reasons to celebrate
the award of the Nobel Peace Prize for 2006 jointly to Muhammad Yunus, the recognised creator of the "microcredit"
model of finance for the poor that has swept across the developing world, and the Grameen Bank in Bangladesh that he founded
three decades ago. These reasons go well beyond appreciation of the valuable human qualities of the man himself, such as his
creativity, persistence, charisma and passionate advocacy in promoting this model widely and extending it in various ways.
One important reason is that awards such as this rescue the Nobel Peace Prize both from the controversial
dogfights that have accompanied some of the political choices of the past, and from being mired in a very restrictive notion
of the concept of peace. This award, along with the earlier award to the African environmentalist Wangari Maathai, shows the
Nobel Committee's recognition that peace is not really possible without more equitable development.
citation says as much, claiming that this prize is being given to Yunus and the Grameen Bank "for their efforts to create
economic and social development from below. Lasting peace cannot be achieved unless large population groups find ways in which
to break out of poverty."
But while this is clearly a much-deserved prize, it also exposes other
weaknesses about the Nobel Prizes in general. It is in some ways a safe, even predictable, choice. Rumours about this award
have been in wide circulation for some time, given the now almost universal espousal of microcredit by the World Bank and
international development agencies in general, as well as by many developing country governments. The United Nations declared
2005 to be "the international year of microcredit", and there has been enthusiastic promotion of the concept in
international circles by former American President Bill Clinton and others.
What is worth noting is
that Yunus, who is an economist, received the Nobel Prize for Peace, rather than Economics. Yet his contribution has really
been in the field of economics, since his model stood conventional economic theory on its head and effectively created a new
paradigm, which has since spawned an international industry of theoretical models to explain its success. This tells us something
about how relatively limited in vision the awards of the Economics Nobel Prize have been. They have focussed much more on
narrow academic peer recognition than on addressing real world development issues or processes that actually transform economies.
exactly was this innovation called microcredit? To understand its significance, it is important to begin with understanding
how formal financial institutions operate. Since giving credit is always associated with some risk of default - that is, the
borrower not returning the loan amount or paying interest - bankers of all types usually require some form of surety (collateral)
against which they can lend. Formal banking institutions therefore require the borrower to have assets such as land or a house,
or a secure job, or a certified credit history, or some such assurance against which they will proffer funds.
obviously eliminates the poor, who are by definition without significant assets and usually also lack secure streams of income
through regular employment. So the poor get automatically excluded from formal financial institutions, and are forced to go
to private moneylenders who charge very high rates of interest. These traditional moneylenders are able to function in such
circumstances because they can somehow ensure that the loan and interest are repaid through extra-economic means, or can extract
other forms of payment such a labour services.
It was therefore accepted that the poor were not "bankable"
for formal financial institutions, or able to access other financial services such as insurance. Economic theory had also
devised many complicated models to explain the necessary persistence of traditional money-lending and high interest rates
among the poor.
The significance of the Grameen Bank and other microcredit experiments was that they
countered this axiomatic belief by showing that even formal financial institutions could provide loans exclusively to the
poor and still be assured of repayment. This is because they are based on the principle of "group lending" whereby
loans are made to a group (of between 5 and 20 people) and therefore peer pressure acts as an effective mode of ensuring repayment.
Muhammad Yunus may not be the pioneer of microcredit - there were cases of similar experiments in the
early 1970s in Colombia and Brazil, for example. But he was the first to make this a viable model capable of being copied
and scaled up. He also became a tireless propagator of the cause of microcredit worldwide.
It all began
in 1974, during a famine in Bangladesh, when Yunus was teaching economics at the Chittagong University after receiving a doctorate
in the United States. In his efforts to do something to help the famine-ravaged people in the district, he was visiting nearby
villages when he was persuaded to make his first loan in the village of Jobra.
He offered around 7,000
Bangladeshi taka from his own funds to a group of 42 bamboo craftspeople in desperate need. They had no collateral to offer,
and no contract was signed. Nevertheless, the loan was repaid in full, after the borrowers used the money to buy bamboo, sell
their crafts and repay both Yunus and the traditional moneylenders to whom they were indebted.
drew from this the lesson that the poor can indeed be viable and creditworthy borrowers. But his efforts to persuade banks
to lend to them independently were fruitless, as the banks all continued to insist on his personal surety for any loans taken
by those without collateral. In any case, traditional banks were simply not interested in making tiny loans at high transaction
costs to those with no credit history.
The Grameen Bank was founded in 1976 by Muhammad Yunus as a
result of such experience. It was dedicated to serving the poorest of the poor, based on Yunus' vision that even such
very poor people were viable credit risks and could make productive use of small loans to enhance their earning capacity.
Women as target group
Grameen bank model that emerged had some important features, apart from its concentration on the poor as clients. It involved
lending in groups (originally of five members) who were jointly responsible for the loan. It required repayment in small periodic
instalments, over a relatively short period. It lent not only to farmers but also to rural labourers, petty traders, and most
importantly to women. While at first male borrowers outnumbered their female counterparts, this was consciously altered so
that by the mid-1980s, women accounted for more than 96 per cent of the loans disbursed.
of lending to women has emerged as one of the more transformatory features of the Grameen model. Women turned out to be much
more reliable borrowers, whose loans were used for the well-being of the family. But this also became an important instrument
of social change in the conservative patriarchal context of Bangladeshi society. Not only did the access to microfinance improve
women's bargaining power within their households, but the fact of meeting together and being part of groups led to other
ways of thinking in a collective mode that proved to be quite empowering.
These features have been
emulated not only by the Bangladesh Rural Action Committee (BRAC) and Proshikha, the two other large microcredit non-governmental
organisations in Bangladesh, but across the world, as the focus on microcredit has been an important part of the agenda of
multilateral development banks and even of governments. And the focus on women borrowers has proved to be one of the more
successful results of the model wherever it has been transplanted. The spread of this essentially simple idea has been quite
remarkable in the past two decades. According to the "State of the Microcredit Summit Campaign Report", 2005, at
the end of 2004 there were 3,200 microcredit institutions that reported reaching more than 92 million clients across the world.
In India too, governments at the Central and State levels have been actively promoting microcredit,
particularly to women, through the institution of Self-Help Groups , which engage in both savings and loan activities. In
States such as Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh, such organisations have been present for some time now, through the efforts of
NGOs such as Mahila Samakhya and Co-operative Development Foundation.
A further innovation has been
to form them into federations and link them with formal lending institutions. The National Bank for Agriculture and Rural
Development has a scheme whereby it finances more than 500 nationalised banks for lending on to SHGs that have managed their
funds well. The amounts involved are relatively small and the interest rates are quite high (usually around 12 per cent).
But the scheme involves very large numbers - around 1.4 millions SHGs comprising nearly 20 million women, making this Indian
scheme therefore the largest bank-microcredit linkage in the world.
Despite this spread, and some clear areas of success, it is a mistake to view
microcredit as the universal development panacea that it seems to have become for the international development industry.
It can at best be a part of a wider process that also includes working towards reducing asset inequalities, better and more
egalitarian access to health and education services, and more productive employment opportunities.
amounts of money distributed through microcredit are small and the periods for repayment so short that they cannot really
lead to effective asset-building. Some argue that microcredit at best acts as a consumption stabiliser, reducing the adverse
effects of shocks such as natural calamities or seasonal fluctuations, and provides means for taking advantage of small business
opportunities. In the absence of other measures or more dynamic growth processes, this can amount to no more than a redistribution
of incomes among the relatively poor, rather than an overall increase in incomes of the poor. It can also be associated with
microcredit dependency, involving continued reliance on loans for consumption rather than productive use.
the group lending that delivers high repayment rates can also become an instrument of stratification, especially when there
are linkages with banks providing some additional institutional finance to the groups. There have been cases of women from
the most destitute or socially deprived groups being excluded from membership of groups containing better-off members, because
of fears that their inability to repay will damage the prospects of other members. In some States, peer pressure has forced
women borrowers to take expensive loans from moneylenders to repay the loans from the SHG.
do not detract from the importance of the microcredit model, but they do emphasise that this in itself cannot be seen as the
magic bullet to end rural poverty. To their credit, both Muhammad Yunus and the Grameen Bank themselves appear to be aware
of this rather obvious truth, since their interventions over the past decades have been characterised by continuous innovation
and experimentation. In addition to other forms of microfinance such as insurance, Grameen has experimented with housing loans,
loans for fisheries and other small enterprises, venture capital, solar energy projects, a commercial telecom project with
a Norwegian partner to deliver cheap rural phones, and now even health care services.
It is this approach
of constantly listening to the actual needs of the poor, of being flexible in terms of continuously looking for new solutions
and enlarging possibilities from below, which is the most engaging aspect of Muhammad Yunus' contribution. Even more than
microcredit alone, it may turn out to be his most positive influence
Needs to Know First About Economics
Economics designs peoples futures but this depends
on what logics are analysed- here are the logics The Economist used in the early 19080s when it discussed how the net gneration
could be the most productive time for youth
nation/place cannot sustain growth unless its capital is structured so that family's savings are invested in their next generation's
productivity. Norman Macrae's 1954 book on The London Capital Market provides chapter and verse. Historically it
was timely as London's industrial revolution had planted most of the developed world's laws and financial instruments. Futurewise
this book became a source for Norman's forty years of leadership challenges including 3000 editorials. THese became branded
in the 2 genres of entrepreneurial revolution and future history of the net generation genre which he focused on from 1972.
They script in practical details most of the changes that economists would need to make to historic rules if globalisation
is not to collapse the worldwide financial system of 2010s
Norman framed his
writings on future purposes huan most wanted around the idea that The Net Generation to 2024 would face change on a scale
never previously experienced by our human race. To prevent risks and celebrate job creating opportunities Norman proposed
in his 1984 book (The 2024 Report) that the world should unite around youth's most exciting millennium goal. He explained
why economics would design the most popular futures if the goal was chosen as racing to end poverty everywhere. Reasons
included: its possible, its exciting, it creates jobs post-industrial generation will need to design around collaborative
technology, it can empower youth to joyfully unite cultures as we become borderless (more connected than separated), it aligns
economics principles with nature's exponentially (compounding) rules of evolutionary selection which are community-up and
We are shocked how few people know of the main
findings of the renowned economist Maynard Keynes- increasingly only economics riles the world and the greatest risk to the
future working lives of our children comes from elderly macroeconomists who hire themselves out to the biggest who want to
Historically when faulty systems
of macroeconomists ruined civilisations they fell one by one. But Einstein took Keynes logic further and hypothesised that
the first generation to become more connected than separated by technology would be subject to a final exam. Now if we let
erroneous macroeconomists rule whole continents of nations will collapse.
By 1976 my father (Norman macrae) -probably the last student of economics
mentored by Keynes- was writing at The Economist why the next half century would see the net generation
tested - he called upon the genre of Entrepreneurial Revolution (ER) networkers to sort out the greatest innovation
challenge economics - and so the human race - will ever face .
The opportunity of 10 times
more productivity for the net generation (with million times more collaboration technology than man's 1960's race to moon)
THREAT is preventing the threat of collapsing continent-wide
system of value exchange. By 2020 the (exponential track impacting future) sustainanbilyty of every village around the globe
will likely be lost or won
How could we be experiencing record youth unemployent when we are living in a time
of a million times more collaboration tech than a generation ago? According to research by Entrepreneur networks started at
The Economist in 1976, we are 36 years off track in compounding 2 unustainable systems whose follies multiply each other
that caused by non-economic media which also distracts us with glossy images and
soiundbites instead of future realities and integrated cross-cultural and inter-generational understanding - full briefing here
World's biggest maths error compounded by macroeconomists and all global professions
with a ruling monopoly - see below
Discuss: what does everyone need to know about the way economists think and behave. Understand 2 opposite
segments of E : The Unacknowledged Microeconomist and the Fatally Conceited.MacroEconomist
- because economics will incresingly rule the world, the greatest danger to the futures of youth is elderly macroeconomists
where fame maks them compete to superpower over peoples
historic significance of capitalism is precisely a society in which exchange has become a more important source of power than
threat**** in his book economics as science
Von hayek- given the fatal conceit in my profession, I really think you shouldn't be doing this - awarding
me a first Nobel Prize in economics
speech and everything about the future you want, NOW depends on enough people knowing how to play the value exchange game
- and why that isnt exactly what the game of monopoly teaches - an exchange is where each side says I wants something from you so let's work out what I
can do for you and purposefully improve on this over time through hi-trust communal feedback
debate difference between true capitalism and phoney capitalism
agree on a picture like
that on the right- we have seen cases where one of the 10 coordinates shown felt the system had betrayed their greatest
trust, and so zeroised the organsaition or network (even ones that accountants had been reprorting record profits ahd $100
start discussing multi-win models - see our 4 favorites from 36
years of debates with entrepreneuruial revoltionaries
choose say 12 markets whose future
purpose is most vital to sustaining your children - and use media to agree what the greatest human purpose and corresponding
mkilennium goals are that need investing in to fee each market and youth's working lives in serving the most valuable purpose
get those (including all parents?) who save across generations to throw out speculators from banking systems
and capital markets - eg next time there is a bailout (which means taking your childrens money to refinance a bank) wipe out
shareholders; let them set lawyers on old managers and any politicians their pr's lobbied; keep savings accounts safe; restructure
bank so that it invests in youth productivity and sustaining communities not bubbles, and not trapping people in debt
Goodwill explains up to 90% of value impacts of any organsaition in a networked economy- yet no nation
yet requires that organisations it licences to audit goodwii. 20 years of research has proved the following reciprocal relationship
- the purposeful question" who would uniquely miss what if your organsaition did not exist?, has the reciprocal
question why let your organisation contnue to exist if it has broken my life-crtiical trust it promised to serve
valuetrue capitalism maps how each side win-win-win from other sides communal purpose over time -this goes
back over 250 years to the criteria of free markets adam smith demanded freedom of speech questioned - he talked
about the transparency of community markets where a rogue trader might fool some of the people but not for long and not for
too big to fail! - the journal of social business edited by adam smith scholars at his alma mater Glasgow University
advises people of any other tongue how to build up from adam's hi-trust ideas to such constructs as sustainable global vilage
networking first mapped by schumacher (another keynes alumni) - we have a library of free articles for you to choose and translate
phoney capitalism spins a monopoly, a non-free maket - one side rules by
saying I want to take more and more from all of you- esentially this is what rules when global accountants audit only how
much one side has profited/extracted withouth how much has it sustains other sides- phoney capitalism can only result in exponentai
meltdown becuase so much has been extracetd from system that its unsustainable for human lives or for nature or for both
Mobile Planet's Center of Entrepreneurial Revolution? globalgrameenisborn
· socialbusinessdecade · yunus69birthdaylondoncreativelabs.avi · yunusyouth...
MORE ABOUT WHERE VALUING NETGEN CAME FROM
- in the 1990s I was working with big 5 accountants;
I argued for a missing audit they needed to do as regularly as their monetisation audit; I called this how goodwill modelling
multiplies value around a gravitational purspoe ewhise gials all sides want to progress over time; it turns out that in knowlege
scetors over 90% of the future is bayesian predicatbale on quality of goodwill relationships-3 yeras before andersen crashed
I usd this model to warn them that if they stoped multiplying conflicts around true and fair they would be zeroised by society-
I didnt succeed in getting my advice to be acted on but at that time unseen wealth publications made by brookings and georgetwon
had just been banned by the incolimng bush adminsitration - who didnt like to be told that without the second aidt risks would
compound unseen- every collapse USA has seen a hand in during 2000s (and viralised to other nations since 2008) can be traced
to this mathenatical error
what can be done about this mess
-debate difference between true cpaitalism and
choose say 12 markets hose future purpose is most vital to sustaining your children - and use
media to aggree what the greatest huan purspose and corresponding mkilennium goals are that need investing in
thse who save across generations to throw out speculators from bankiing systems - eg next time there is a bailout (which means
taking your childrens money to refinace a bank) wipe out sharehilers; let them set lawyers on old managers and any politicians
their pr's lobbied; keep savings acconts safe; restructure bank so that it invests in youth productivity and sustaining communities
not bubbles, and trapping people in debt
-if you do this today's millions times more coalbration technology than
a generation ago can make the next decade the most productive time and joyful for youty and everyine to be alive instead
of the most dismal time where natios led by old macroecnomist put youth out of work
DO YOU KNOW...
Q: Original Purpose of Economics? A The Scotland of the 1750s was at the end of a first
generation to have found their country taken over by England's
Empire., So Adam Smith was motivated to start writing
about how to design systems so that peoples could could look forward to their next generation sustaining more productive lives
than they had had ... 7 quarters later keynes general theory issued humanity's greatest challenge- economics as a systems
science had reached the state that only economics rules the world ... more
Q: What do the man-made systems that rule the world look like? A Purposeful
value exchanges composed round 5 main flows of how productively peoples lives are used and 5 main demands human beings
make as co-workers, customers, owners, stewards of the globe, stewards of society at the village level - more
Q: Why can't human race in 21st C be sustained with choice of economics made by 20th C biggest
banks and govs etc? A Long Story: ER alumni are in their 37th year of offering debating scripts eg1 on wht some industrial age systems after world war 2 were designed to be too big to exist as the
first net generation became more connected than separated by geographical borders ... What is known is that 2010s is most
exciting decade to be an entrpreneur because our impacts define what will be possible for all our childrens' children more
World Class Brands are in 25th year (as a subnetwork of Norman Macrae's Entrepreneurial Revolution)
of helping sustain the most purposeful organsiations or markets in the world. Core to any charter of purpose is a quiz
revolving round this question- who would uniquely miss what if this didn't exist?.
From this Q&A's list of trust-flows, economics maps how to connect producers
and demanders of the exchange in multi-win models of purpose. Henceforth, potential conflicts with this goodwill
model are audited and resolved at every cycle so that unique purpose is celebrated to lead the future by
continuously multiplying the most value and trust. This model provides the simplest benchmark around all exponential
impact metrics of sustainability investement can be calculated and the transparency of all multi-win models are webbed
around pro-youth economics. Questions welcomed email@example.com washington dc hotline 1 301 881 1655
Microfinance Focus, November 4, 2011: Professor Muhammad Yunus was invited to deliver
a key note speech during the G20 Young Entrepreneurs Summit held in Nice, France. Professor Yunus addressed an audience of
more than 400 entrepreneurs from all G20 countries. In his speech, he shared his personal entrepreneurship experiences, his
faith in young entrepreneurs to be the pillars of society and the need to include poor countries in the discussion process
in making global decisions.
Professor Yunus being an entrepreneur himself started off creating the Grameen Bank that
provides microfinance services to the poor who had little access to financial provisions. From that, he ventured into a wide
number of social businesses such as Grameen Nursing College, Grameen Eyecare Hospitals, Grameen Shakti, etc.
always considered young entrepreneurs to be the most effective solution for the future. He said “In my opinion, G20
YES is a fabulous initiative, gathering so much energy and momentum from all over the world. Because of their creativity and
leadership, provided that they commit to share the value they create, these 400 young entrepreneurs in this room can change
Professor Yunus is also a member of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) Advocacy Group, advising
the Secretary General of the United Nations. Hence, he believes that the next generation of youths should be handed over the
process of the MDGs as soon as possible. He believes that entrepreneurs will have a key role to play in fulfilling the MDGs,
if they are committed to the social value created by their companies, and social business can be part of the solutions.
his speech, he added that the G20 needed to broaden its scope to deal with the current world crisis. It can no longer remain
a political forum with economic agendas. The G20 needs to create a social agenda as well. Professor Yunus proposes that ‘social
business’ should be brought to the agenda of G20, as one of the concrete and effective solutions to be considered for
immediate implementation so as to guide capitalistic investment towards social value and jobs creation, rather than sheer
profit maximization strategies. A social business is a cause-driven business where profits stay within the company for its
Lastly, Professor Yunus concluded that the G20 should be expanded into the G25, where poor countries
from each continent should be included in the global agenda which they are part of. He added that “Their problems are
inter-related with others, and their proposals of solutions should be considered by the most economically advanced countries
in making global decisions. A G25 would be a big step toward ensuring that global social issues are raised, and MDGs implementation
is fully shared on the global agenda. And finally, because fighting poverty together is the only way to bring long lasting
peace in this world.”
inquiries chris macrae info @worldcitizen.tv us tel 301 881 1655 ; us office 5801 nicholson lane
suite 404, North Bethesda, MD 20852 USA - skype chrismacraedc
Mapping is a process of discovery. Crucially maps are only as usable as updating correctness of bottom
up information. Think of your own use of a map. You look for the "you are here arrow". You want to be directed to
somewhere/someone you dont know how to get to; you want your return vist to be safe as well as a value multiplying win-win.
Does anyone remember the simplest findings of einstein and jon von neumann. Einstein proved
that to innovate more value you need to go more micro in what you model; von neumann showed that there is more value to be
networked by interfacing safe flows across systems instead of ruling over separation of boundaries. There isnt a single
global metrics profession that gets these mathematical -and natural - principles right. Unless we change this global
markets will cycle through ever greater collapse and more and more communities will lose sustainability. Mapmaking is that
critical an idea to what the net genration will achieve in 2010s; but its also one that children from primary age up can action
learn. Its simple. Its just that it works the other way round from top-down people's fatal conceit.
It explores how to make the invisible principles and practices of real wealth creation
visible, and therefore useable. Our planet needs case studies underline the search for new win-wins that build ‘system
integrity’ Trust-flow is the unseen wealth to invest sustainability in. Tranpsarently mapped it develops
a goodwill gravity tyhat invites with roleplayer in a community to multiply goodwill while sustaining their own cashflow..
Trust is not some vague, mushy, abstract warm-hearted sentiment. It is an economic powerhouse – probably just as economically
and socially important as oil. The point is, there are specific things you need to do to get trust flowing, just as
there are specific things you need to do to get oil flowing. And like oil trust has a dark side. Right now, the world is awash
with the carbon emissions which threaten the stability and sustainability of its ecosystems. Right now, the world is also
awash with the ‘carbon emission’ of trust – mistrust. Indeed it may well be that our ability to tackle the
one issue – the threat of environmental catastrophe – depends on our ability to tackle the other issue: how to
generate, deepen, extend and sustain trust.>br>But what is the best way of doing this? One thing is for sure. You don’t
build and sustain trust via some sentimental exercise of goodwill to all and sundry. There are three very simple principles
at the heart of effective trust generation. First, trust is generated via win-win relationships. It’s virtually
impossible to generate or sustain trust without mutual benefit for those involved. But beneficial outcomes are not enough
in themselves. For trust to be built and sustained, both sides need to signal a demonstrable commitment to finding win-win
ways forward. Such a commitment may require real changes to what we say and do. Second, real ‘win-wins’
are hardly ever purely financial or material. You don’t build trust simply by walking away with more cash in your pocket.
Trust works at all the dimensions and levels of human exchange. Yes, it’s about financial and material rewards. But
it’s also about purpose (what people want to achieve). It’s about politics with a small ‘p’: the use
and abuse of power, the crafting and application of rules of fair play. And it’s about emotions: the sometimes overwhelmingly
strong emotions, both positive and negative, that are generated when people deal with other peopleWhat’s constitutes
a ‘win’ – a sense of real improvement – is therefore highly specific. It depends absolutely on the
details of who the parties are, what they are trying to achieve, in what context. Building trus, therefore involves discovering
these specifics. Just as oil doesn’t flow out of the ground, get refined and pump its way into motor vehicles automatically
and without effort, so identifying and doing what is necessary to get trust flowing requires dedicated, skilled effort. It
requires a disciplined, structured process, not a vague sentiment.
3) Third, even if we do steps 1) and 2) there’s
still a good chance it won’t succeed. Why? Because it ignores an invisible third factor. In the real world, purely two
way bilateral relationships don’t exist. There is always a third party whose interests or outcomes are affected by what
the other two parties do but who is not a party to the contract. The environment is a case in point. Producers and consumers
may both benefit from buying and selling to each other – but what happens if, in doing so, they destroy the environment
they both depend on?
This raises a hugely important question. When two parties pursue win-wins and build mutual
trust, are they doing so in a way which creates a win and builds trust for the third party at the same time? Or are they simply
pushing the problems – and the mistrust – further down the line on to this third party? Building vigorous, healthy
networks of trust is a different kettle of fish to ‘you scratch my back and I’ll scratch yours’
win-win conspiracies. It requires a Map of all the key relationships plus careful consideration of knock-on consequences.
It requires a different perspective.
These three simple, basic steps do not happen automatically. They need to
be worked at. The territory needs to be deliberately Mapped and explored. What’s more, there are obstacles in our way
– mental and practical obstacles that need to be cleared. Prevailing economic theories about ‘rational economic
man’ for example, deny the need to commit to win-win outcomes. Instead, they promote supposedly ‘rational’
(i.e. narrowly selfish behaviours) which actively undermine trust The same theories insist that the only valid measure of
human benefit is money, thereby excluding from consideration many of the biggest opportunities for improvement. Meanwhile
many vested interests do not want to extend the circle of trust to third parties and complete networks because their positions
of power depend on their ability to take advantage of the weaknesses of these third parties. That’s another job for
Mapping: helping to identify and mount such obstacles. The potential benefits of doing so are unthinkably huge. They
start with a simple negative: the relief that comes from when you stop banging your head against a brick wall. Mistrust breeds
wasteful, wealth destroying conflict that tends to feed on itself. Anger and hatred engender anger and hatred. Simply easing
or stopping the terrible waste of mistrust would transform prospects for many millions of people. We desperately need to find
ways of doing this. Then there are the positive benefits. Understanding the real nature of human wealth – all those
dimensions of purpose, ‘politics’ and emotion as well as money and material comfort – means we can start
being human again; human in the way we think, and act. What’s more, many of these intangible benefits won’t cost
a penny. They’re there for the taking, if only we puts our minds to it. But there’s more, because trust is
also an economic superpower in its own right. In the pages that follow we will show conclusively that material and financial
riches are also dependent on trust. In fact, we will argue the case for going one step further. We will say that material
and financial riches are a by-product of trust: the visible fruits of invisible, intangible human exchange. Once you understand
that sustainable cash flows are a by-product of sustainable trust flows, your understanding of what makes a successful business
is transformed. Separately, each of these three fruits – reducing the waste of conflict, unleashing the potential
intrinsic benefits of human exchange, and energising the sustainable creation of material wealth – are massive in their
own right. Put them together and they represent a vast new continent of opportunity. As we said, this book is addressed
to entrepreneurs and system innovation revolutionaries. Wherever you happen to be, whatever the change you want to make
is, the principles explored in this book apply. The wish to change and the will to change are not the same as being able to
change successfully. For that you need to understand your territory. You will need new Maps
a continental or worldwide search solutions on job creation that can be replicated across communities been organised before
this EU launch of Nov 2011?
While alumni of entrepreneurial economics have always valued job creation searches- we know
of no clear evidence that this has been top of mind in the way that continental-wide government has operated since 1984 even
though it was scripted by The Economist's Unacknowledged Giant as the number 1 question the first net generation would need
to mediate if sustainable futures and humanity's most needed millennium goals are to be served
what's different about nov 2011 is 4 top directorates of the EU have nailed their future reputation to this search
Tom Ashbrook: You're
talking about, writing about the end of the EU, the end of the common currency.
Paul Krugman: it's
unthinkable except that continuing down the current path is unthinkable. Spain is actually the epicenter. The Spanish government
did nothing wrong. Spain was running a budget surplus before the crisis. It had low levels of debt. But it had a monstrous
housing bubble, as did a lot of places, largely financed by the way by German banks which were lending to Spanish banks, which
then lent on. And when the housing bubble burst you were left with a severe, extremely severe recession, and so the answer
has been government austerity which just makes the slump deeper.
The alternatives to a breakup of
the euro have to be Europe-wide solutions. And so the solution, if there is one, involves accepting a higher rate of inflation
for Europe as a whole and that particularly means higher inflation in Germany. --Paul Krugman
are Spain's alternatives here? Well, if they still had their currency, their own currency, the answer would be devalue, let
the peseta drop, Spanish exports would become a lot more competitive, they'd be well on their way to recovery. They don't
have their own currency, so people are saying: Well, you have to do all this stuff to stay within the Euro. At some point
you say: Well, you know if your answer to our problem is just ever more suffering, ever more you know... 25 percent, 50 percent
youth unemployment. If that's your notion of a solution, then maybe although it would be a very terrible thing to have the
Euro breakup, maybe that's better than what we're doing. So that's becoming a real possibility now.
to a breakup of the euro have to be Europe-wide solutions. And so the solution, if there is one, involves accepting a higher
rate of inflation for Europe as a whole and that particularly means higher inflation in Germany. Talk to the Germans about
this and of course they go crazy, but you have to say to them: What is your answer? What you're doing right now is just a
path to the collapse of the euro with enormous damage and radicalization and a lot of things that you don't want to see happen
in Europe happening.
TA: If the Germans can't take their foot off the brakes, they're just intrinsically
and against history and everything else, Weimar, if they can't do it, what happens?
PK: Then Europe
breaks up and... No, I mean I think it's that stark. It really is, it really is that extreme because you know it's one of
those things, you can't be saying that, but then you say: Well, let's talk this through. You know, let's as it said in the
original edition of the Godfather - Let us reason together. Right? What are the ways that this can work out? And the current
path is not one that can work out.
It's like an irresistible force hitting an immovable object. On the one hand it's
unthinkable that they'll allow the euro to fail because the euro is a terribly important thing, it's not terribly important
economically, it would have been better off if they'd, if they had never done it, but now that it has been done, for it to
fail is a defeat for the European project, the whole project of bringing peace, democracy, integration to a continent with
a terrible history. So it's unthinkable that they'll allow it to fail, but it's also unthinkable that the Germans will accept
moderate inflation which is the only solution any of us have been able to come up with. So one of two impossible things is
going to happen. Your bet.